Fallacies and Cognitive Biases
You’ve probably tried to argue with someone who wasn’t making sense, someone whose logic felt off even if you couldn’t quite put your finger on why. That feeling isn’t just frustration. It’s often the sign of a logical fallacy or cognitive bias at work.
Fallacies are systematic errors in reasoning. They’re the mental shortcuts and rhetorical tricks that undermine an argument, making it invalid or misleading, sometimes accidentally, sometimes by design. Cognitive biases are the psychological patterns that distort how we perceive, interpret, and remember information. Both play crucial roles in how people form and defend beliefs, especially beliefs about supernatural phenomena.
When someone argues for a divine being or supernatural event, they often rely on one or more of these fallacies or biases, consciously or not. Recognizing them helps you assess arguments on their logical merits rather than being swayed by rhetorical tricks or our shared cognitive limitations.
This reference organizes fallacies and biases into three levels of severity. Each entry includes concrete examples and an explanation of how the fallacy or bias commonly appears in arguments for supernatural beliefs. Use the quick navigation below to jump to a section.
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- Level 1: Critical Fallacies (19 entries)
- Level 2: Serious Fallacies (36 entries)
- Level 3: Minor Fallacies and Cognitive Biases (40 entries)
Level 1: Critical Fallacies
These fallacies fundamentally undermine arguments, rendering them logically invalid. They violate basic rules of deductive reasoning. When someone commits a Level 1 fallacy, their argument fails at the most basic logical level. No matter how persuasive the delivery or how emotionally compelling the content, the argument simply doesn’t work.
1. Affirming the Consequent
What it means: Assuming that if a consequence is true, then the original cause must be true.
Example: “If it rained, the grass would be wet. The grass is wet. Therefore, it rained.”
In religious arguments: If God exists, there would be morality. We observe morality. Therefore, God exists.
2. Denying the Antecedent
What it means: Assuming that if the cause is false, the consequence must be false.
Example: “If it’s raining, the ground will be wet. It’s not raining. Therefore, the ground is not wet.”
In religious arguments: If God doesn’t exist, people wouldn’t have experiences they interpret as divine. Some people have such experiences. Therefore, God exists.
3. Fallacy of Four Terms
What it means: Using four or more distinct terms in a syllogism where only three are allowed for valid reasoning.
Example: “All cats are animals. All dogs are animals. Therefore, all dogs are cats.”
In religious arguments: God is love. Love is powerful. Love exists. Therefore, God exists.
4. Illicit Major
What it means: In a syllogism, the major term is distributed in the conclusion but not in the major premise.
Example: “Some philosophers are intelligent. All philosophers are humans. Therefore, all humans are intelligent.”
In religious arguments: Some miraculous healings occur. All healings attributed to God are miraculous. Therefore, all healings are attributable to God.
5. Illicit Minor
What it means: In a syllogism, the minor term is distributed in the conclusion but not in the minor premise.
Example: “All dogs are animals. Some animals are fierce. Therefore, all dogs are fierce.”
In religious arguments: Some atheists are unhappy. Happiness comes from God. Therefore, all atheists lack what makes people happy.
6. Negative Conclusion from Affirmative Premises
What it means: Drawing a negative conclusion from premises that are all affirmative.
Example: “All dogs are animals. Cats are animals. Therefore, cats are not dogs.”
In religious arguments: God is perfect. The universe exists. Therefore, the universe is not God’s creation.
7. Undistributed Middle
What it means: The middle term in a syllogism is never fully distributed, making the connection between premises invalid.
Example: “Some dogs are brown. Some horses are brown. Therefore, some dogs are horses.”
In religious arguments: The universe shows design. Nature shows design. Therefore, the universe is natural.
8. Modal Fallacy
What it means: Confusing what is possible with what is necessary, or what is actual.
Example: “It’s possible that a meteor could have destroyed the dinosaurs. A meteor did destroy the dinosaurs. Therefore, this was necessary.”
In religious arguments: It’s possible that God exists. God existing would explain reality. Therefore, God necessarily exists.
9. Argument from Incredulity
What it means: Assuming something is false simply because you find it hard to believe or understand.
Example: “I can’t understand how quantum mechanics works. Therefore, quantum mechanics is false.”
In religious arguments: I can’t understand how the universe began without God. Therefore, God must exist.
10. Non Sequitur
What it means: Drawing a conclusion that doesn’t logically follow from the premises.
Example: “Pizza is delicious. Therefore, the Earth is round.”
In religious arguments: People feel peaceful when they pray. Therefore, God answers prayers.
11. Contradiction
What it means: Making two statements that cannot both be true at the same time.
Example: “The cat is in the room. The cat is not in the room.”
In religious arguments: God is all-knowing and all-powerful. God gave humans free will, which allows them to act against God’s will.
12. Circular Reasoning
What it means: Using the conclusion as evidence for itself, directly or indirectly.
Example: “Shakespeare is the greatest writer because he is better than all other writers.”
In religious arguments: The Bible is true because it is the word of God, and we know it is the word of God because the Bible says so.
13. Straw Man Fallacy
What it means: Misrepresenting an opponent’s argument in a weaker or exaggerated form, then refuting that distortion.
Example: “Some people say we should protect endangered animals. These people want to stop all human activity.”
In religious arguments: Atheists say there is no God. So atheists believe nothing has purpose or meaning.
14. False Dichotomy
What it means: Presenting only two options when more actually exist.
Example: “You’re either with us or against us.”
In religious arguments: Either God exists or life has no meaning.
15. Appeal to Ignorance
What it means: Arguing that something is true because it hasn’t been proven false, or vice versa.
Example: “No one has proven ghosts don’t exist. Therefore, ghosts exist.”
In religious arguments: Scientists haven’t explained everything about consciousness. Therefore, God must have created it.
16. Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc
What it means: Assuming that if event B followed event A, then A caused B.
Example: “I wore my lucky socks and my team won. The socks caused the win.”
In religious arguments: I prayed and recovered from illness. Prayer caused my recovery.
17. Slippery Slope
What it means: Arguing that one event will inevitably lead to a series of negative consequences without evidence of the chain.
Example: “If we allow one person to work from home, soon everyone will, and the company will collapse.”
In religious arguments: If we allow teaching evolution, society will become immoral and collapse.
18. Equivocation
What it means: Using the same word in different senses within an argument, creating false connections.
Example: “Banks are beside rivers. I have a bank account. Therefore, I am beside a river.”
In religious arguments: Love is powerful. God is love. Therefore, God is powerful.
19. Red Herring
What it means: Introducing an irrelevant topic to distract from the actual argument.
Example: “Should we improve school funding?”
In religious arguments: Is there evidence for God?
Level 2: Serious Fallacies
These fallacies involve manipulation, emotional appeals, or rhetorical missteps that distort reasoning. They’re “serious” because they often succeed in persuading people, not through valid logic, but through appeals to authority, emotion, or tradition. Unlike Level 1 fallacies, these don’t necessarily break formal logical rules, but they undermine honest reasoning and clear thinking.
1. Ad Hominem
What it means: Attacking the person making an argument rather than addressing the argument itself.
Example: “You’re not a scientist, so your position on climate change is wrong.”
In religious arguments: Atheists are just angry at God or had bad experiences. That’s why they deny God.
2. Appeal to Authority
What it means: Using an authority figure’s opinion as proof, especially when the authority is not an expert in the relevant field.
Example: “A famous actor believes in this diet, so it must be effective.”
In religious arguments: A Nobel Prize-winning physicist believes in God, therefore God exists.
3. Appeal to Popularity
What it means: Arguing that something is true because many people believe it or do it.
Example: “Billions of people eat pizza, so it must be the healthiest food.”
In religious arguments: Over 80% of the world believes in some form of deity, so God must exist.
4. Appeal to Emotion
What it means: Substituting emotional appeals for logical arguments.
Example: “Think of the puppies! We must ban this farming practice!”
In religious arguments: Imagine your child lost. A parent’s prayer was answered and they were found. You need this hope in your life too.
5. Hasty Generalization
What it means: Drawing a broad conclusion from a small sample or limited examples.
Example: “I met two rude people from that city. Everyone from there must be rude.”
In religious arguments: My neighbor is an atheist and immoral. Atheists are immoral.
6. Cherry-Picking
What it means: Selecting only evidence that supports your position while ignoring evidence that contradicts it.
Example: “Studies show that coffee is healthy!”
In religious arguments: The Bible predicted specific historical events!
7. Tu Quoque
What it means: Responding to criticism by claiming the critic does the same thing, rather than addressing the criticism.
Example: “You say I’m wasteful, but you waste water too!”
In religious arguments: You say religion causes harm, but atheism caused harm under Stalin!
8. Middle Ground Fallacy
What it means: Assuming the truth lies in the middle of two opposing positions without evidence.
Example: “Some say the Earth is spherical, others say flat. The truth is probably something in between.”
In religious arguments: Atheists say God doesn’t exist, theists say God does. The reasonable position is agnosticism.
9. Loaded Question
What it means: Asking a question that contains a hidden assumption, trapping the answerer.
Example: “When did you stop cheating on your partner?”
In religious arguments: Don’t you agree that only people with faith in God can be truly happy?
10. Appeal to Tradition
What it means: Arguing something is true or right simply because it has always been believed or done that way.
Example: “We’ve always organized the company this way, so it must be the best way.”
In religious arguments: People have believed in God for thousands of years. That proves God exists.
11. Special Pleading
What it means: Exempting something from rules or logic that apply to everything else without justification.
Example: “All events have causes, except for the Big Bang.”
In religious arguments: Everything needs a creator, except God.
12. Appeal to Common Belief
What it means: Arguing that something is true because many people believe it, or false because few do.
Example: “Everyone knows this conspiracy is real.”
In religious arguments: Most people in my country are Christian, so it must be the true faith.
13. Appeal to Common Practice
What it means: Arguing that something is right or acceptable because many people do it.
Example: “Everyone cheats on their taxes a little. It’s not really wrong.”
In religious arguments: Most religious people ignore certain biblical rules. So those rules must not really matter.
14. Appeal to Consequences
What it means: Arguing that something must be true or false because believing it has positive or negative consequences.
Example: “We should believe the defendant is innocent because if we convict him wrongly, it would be terrible.”
In religious arguments: It’s better to believe in God, if He exists, you’ll go to heaven, but if He doesn’t, you’ve lost nothing. So God must exist.
15. Appeal to Disgust
What it means: Using revulsion or disgust as a substitute for argument.
Example: “That food is gross, therefore no one should eat it.”
In religious arguments: Evolution means we’re descended from apes, how disgusting! So evolution must be false.
16. Appeal to Flattery
What it means: Using compliments or flattery to make someone more likely to accept an argument.
Example: “You’re so intelligent. I’m sure you’ll agree with my brilliant new theory.”
In religious arguments: Only a truly enlightened person can understand the deep spiritual truths I’m sharing.
17. Appeal to Force
What it means: Using threats or coercion to make someone accept an argument.
Example: “Believe what I say or I’ll fire you.”
In religious arguments: Believe in God or face eternal damnation.
18. Appeal to Novelty
What it means: Arguing that something is better simply because it’s new.
Example: “This new phone model is better because it’s the latest release.”
In religious arguments: Modern spiritual practices are better than ancient ones because they’re updated.
19. Appeal to Wealth
What it means: Arguing that something is true or good because wealthy people support it.
Example: “Billionaires believe in this investment strategy, so it must be sound.”
In religious arguments: Rich and successful people often attribute their success to God. Therefore, God must be real.
20. Appeal to Poverty
What it means: Arguing that something is true or valuable because poor or humble people support it.
Example: “Ordinary people believe this natural remedy works, so it must.”
In religious arguments: Poor people find comfort in faith. This shows God cares for them.
21. Appeal to Nature
What it means: Arguing that something is good because it’s natural, or bad because it’s unnatural.
Example: “Pesticides are bad because they’re synthetic. Natural foods are better.”
In religious arguments: Homosexuality is wrong because it’s not natural for reproduction.
22. Appeal to Personal Incredulity
What it means: Claiming something is false because you personally cannot imagine how it works.
Example: “I don’t understand how WiFi works, so WiFi signals probably don’t exist.”
In religious arguments: I can’t fathom how the universe could exist without God, so God must exist.
23. Appeal to Ridicule
What it means: Dismissing an argument by mocking it rather than refuting it.
Example: “That idea is so stupid it doesn’t deserve a response.”
In religious arguments: Atheists think we’re just talking monkeys. How ridiculous!
24. Appeal to Spite
What it means: Arguing for something primarily to upset or hurt someone else.
Example: “I don’t like that guy, so I’ll support his rival even though I disagree with them.”
In religious arguments: Atheists oppose God because they want to live immorally. So God must be real.
25. Appeal to Motive
What it means: Dismissing an argument because of the arguer’s alleged motives, regardless of the argument’s merit.
Example: “He only opposes that policy because he wants to sell more widgets.”
In religious arguments: Atheists push their agenda to undermine morality.
26. Appeal to the Moon
What it means: Making an absurd or ridiculous claim and defending it by pointing out that people once disbelieved other absurd-seeming claims.
Example: “People once thought the moon was unreachable. So my idea that the moon is made of cheese could also be proven true.”
In religious arguments: Science was wrong about many things. So my miracle claim could be right despite lack of evidence.
27. Appeal to Worse Problems
What it means: Dismissing a problem by pointing to a worse problem, suggesting the original doesn’t matter.
Example: “You’re worried about climate change, but war exists! Stop whining about weather.”
In religious arguments: You’re upset about suffering, but look at all the beauty in the world!
28. Appeal to Fear
What it means: Using fear to motivate belief in a claim rather than providing evidence.
Example: “If you don’t buy this security system, your house will definitely be robbed.”
In religious arguments: If you don’t believe in God, terrible things will happen to you.
29. Appeal to Guilt
What it means: Using guilt to make someone accept a position rather than providing rational argument.
Example: “How can you not donate? Don’t you feel guilty abandoning these children?”
In religious arguments: You should feel guilty for your sins. Only God’s forgiveness can absolve you.
30. Appeal to Heaven
What it means: Invoking God or higher power as the final authority to resolve a dispute.
Example: “Let God judge between us, so this argument is over.”
In religious arguments: God has spoken. End of discussion.
31. Appeal to Closure
What it means: Arguing that a position must be true because accepting it brings peace or resolution.
Example: “I’m going to believe this theory because not knowing is too stressful.”
In religious arguments: Faith gives me closure and peace, so God must exist.
32. Appeal to the Stone
What it means: Dismissing an argument by acting as though it’s too absurd to address seriously.
Example: “Your argument is so silly I won’t even bother responding.”
In religious arguments: The idea that God doesn’t exist is too absurd to discuss.
33. Appeal to Probability
What it means: Misusing probability to argue something is likely true when no actual probability applies.
Example: “The probability of that event is impossible to calculate. So it must be possible.”
In religious arguments: We don’t know the probability God exists, so God’s existence is 50/50 likely.
34. Appeal to Relevance
What it means: Citing information that seems relevant but actually doesn’t support the conclusion.
Example: “Studies show reading improves intelligence. I read comic books. Therefore, I’m intelligent.”
In religious arguments: The universe is complex. God exists to explain complexity.
35. Appeal to Self-Evident Truth
What it means: Claiming something is obviously true and needs no proof, when it’s actually debatable.
Example: “It’s obvious that hard work always leads to success. No need for evidence.”
In religious arguments: It’s obvious that God exists. Any rational person can see it.
36. Appeal to Silence
What it means: Drawing conclusions from the absence of information or statements.
Example: “The company hasn’t denied the rumors, so they must be true.”
In religious arguments: The Bible doesn’t explicitly say God is not a woman, so maybe God is female.
Level 3: Minor Fallacies and Cognitive Biases
These fallacies and cognitive biases are less immediately destructive but still shape how we think and what we believe. Many are psychological patterns rather than logical fallacies, ways our brains naturally work to simplify complex information. We’re all subject to them, often without realizing it. In the context of supernatural belief, they’re the small but steady currents that pull us toward faith or prevent us from questioning it.
1. Confirmation Bias
What it means: Seeking, favoring, and recalling information that confirms your existing beliefs while avoiding contradictory information.
Example: “A person who believes coffee is healthy reads studies supporting this while ignoring studies about risks. They remember headlines confirming their view.”
In religious arguments: Believers notice and remember answered prayers while ignoring or rationalizing thousands of unanswered ones.
2. Anchoring Bias
What it means: Relying too heavily on the first piece of information encountered when making decisions.
Example: “In negotiations, the first price suggested heavily influences the final price, even if the initial number was arbitrary.”
In religious arguments: Someone raised in a religious tradition anchors to those beliefs early, making alternative worldviews seem less reasonable.
3. Availability Heuristic
What it means: Judging the likelihood or frequency of something based on how easily examples come to mind.
Example: “Plane crashes are memorable, so people overestimate their frequency compared to car accidents, which are more common but less memorable.”
In religious arguments: A dramatic religious experience or answered prayer is highly memorable, inflating its perceived frequency and significance.
4. Sunk Cost Fallacy
What it means: Continuing a course of action because of previously invested time, money, or effort, even when it’s no longer rational.
Example: “Staying in a bad relationship because you’ve invested years, even though leaving would be better.”
In religious arguments: Maintaining faith despite doubts because of years of religious community involvement and identity investment.
5. Gambler’s Fallacy
What it means: Believing that past random events affect the probability of future random events.
Example: “A coin has landed on heads five times. Believing it’s “due” for tails on the next flip, when the probability remains 50/50.”
In religious arguments: I haven’t had good luck in a while, so God owes me a blessing soon.
6. Bandwagon Effect
What it means: Believing something is true or right because many people do, even without examining evidence.
Example: “Everyone at work uses a particular productivity app, so you assume it must be good without evaluating alternatives.”
In religious arguments: Most people in my community believe in God, so I believe too.
7. Halo Effect
What it means: Allowing one positive trait to influence overall judgment, even in unrelated areas.
Example: “An attractive actor is assumed to be intelligent and trustworthy without evidence in those domains.”
In religious arguments: A charismatic religious leader is assumed truthful about theology based on their charm and personal appeal.
8. Framing Effect
What it means: Making different choices based on how information is presented, even when the underlying facts are identical.
Example: “People prefer a surgical procedure presented as “90% survival rate” over one presented as “10% mortality rate,” though they’re the same.”
In religious arguments: God’s actions framed as “divine plan” seem meaningful; identical events framed as “coincidence” seem random.
9. Just-World Fallacy
What it means: Assuming the world is fair and people get what they deserve, leading to victim-blaming.
Example: “Someone who is poor must be lazy; someone who gets sick deserves it somehow.”
In religious arguments: God rewards the righteous and punishes the wicked.
10. Dunning-Kruger Effect
What it means: People with low knowledge or skill in an area overestimate their competence, while experts often underestimate theirs.
Example: “A beginner overestimates their programming ability, while an experienced programmer underestimates theirs.”
In religious arguments: Someone with little scientific training dismisses evolutionary biology while overestimating their ability to critique it.
11. Status Quo Bias
What it means: Preferring things to stay the same, viewing any change as a potential loss.
Example: “Keeping an outdated system because “at least we know it works,” even though better alternatives exist.”
In religious arguments: We’ve always believed this way. Questioning it is dangerous.
12. Backfire Effect
What it means: When confronted with evidence contradicting a belief, the person becomes more convinced of the original belief.
Example: “Presenting evidence against a conspiracy theory actually makes believers more certain it’s true.”
In religious arguments: Showing contradictions in religious texts makes believers dismiss the source and hold beliefs more firmly.
13. Illusory Correlation
What it means: Perceiving a relationship between two variables when none actually exists.
Example: “Noticing that headaches occur on Mondays and concluding Mondays cause headaches, ignoring other factors.”
In religious arguments: Perceiving a relationship between prayer and positive outcomes while ignoring that both occur independently.
14. Outcome Bias
What it means: Judging the quality of a decision based on its outcome rather than the information available when the decision was made.
Example: “A risky investment that happens to succeed is retroactively judged as wise, even if it was poorly reasoned.”
In religious arguments: I prayed and the problem was solved, proving God answered my prayer.
15. Optimism Bias
What it means: Believing that positive outcomes are more likely for you than for others, while negative outcomes are less likely.
Example: “Smokers believing they’re less likely than other smokers to develop cancer.”
In religious arguments: God will protect me personally, even if bad things happen to others.
16. Pessimism Bias
What it means: Expecting negative outcomes to be more likely for you, while underestimating positive ones.
Example: “Assuming job interviews will go poorly despite having good qualifications.”
In religious arguments: Without God, the future is bleak and meaningless.
17. Selective Perception
What it means: Noticing and focusing on stimuli that match your expectations while ignoring others.
Example: “After deciding a brand is high-quality, noticing its advertisements everywhere while ignoring competitors’ ads.”
In religious arguments: Noticing religious references or “divine signs” everywhere once you believe, while ignoring conflicting observations.
18. Self-Serving Bias
What it means: Attributing successes to personal traits while attributing failures to external circumstances.
Example: “Taking credit for a successful project but blaming poor tools and deadlines for a failed one.”
In religious arguments: I succeeded because God blessed me,
19. Actor-Observer Bias
What it means: Attributing others’ behavior to personality while attributing your own to circumstances.
Example: “When someone is late, it’s because they’re irresponsible; when you’re late, it’s because of traffic.”
In religious arguments: They rejected God because they’re sinful,
20. Fundamental Attribution Error
What it means: Overestimating personality factors and underestimating situational factors when explaining others’ behavior.
Example: “Someone cuts you off in traffic, “they’re a reckless driver”, ignoring that they might be rushing to an emergency.”
In religious arguments: They’re poor because they’re lazy,
21. Hindsight Bias
What it means: Seeing past events as more predictable than they actually were, and believing you “knew it all along.”
Example: “After an election outcome, claiming you always knew that candidate would win.”
In religious arguments: Of course that prayer was answered, I knew it would be,
22. Groupthink
What it means: A group’s desire for harmony or consensus leads it to ignore contradictory evidence and suppress dissent.
Example: “A team ignores warning signs of a bad project because everyone seems committed to it.”
In religious arguments: Religious communities suppress doubts to maintain group cohesion and prevent questioning of shared beliefs.
23. Curse of Knowledge
What it means: Once you know something, you struggle to understand how others can fail to know it, assuming it’s obvious.
Example: “An expert programmer overestimates how easy their code is to understand for beginners.”
In religious arguments: God’s existence is obvious to anyone who thinks about it,
24. False Consensus Effect
What it means: Overestimating how much others share your beliefs and values.
Example: “Believing most people are as introverted as you are, when in fact more are extroverted.”
In religious arguments: Everyone really believes in God deep down, they’re just in denial.
25. False Uniqueness Effect
What it means: Overestimating how unique you are compared to others, especially for positive traits.
Example: “Thinking your sense of humor is more unique than it actually is.”
In religious arguments: My faith journey is unique and deeply personal,
26. Survivorship Bias
What it means: Focusing on successful examples while ignoring failed ones, biasing perception of success rates.
Example: “Interviewing millionaires and concluding their specific strategies guarantee wealth, ignoring those who failed with the same approach.”
In religious arguments: Pray and you’ll get the job,
27. Authority Bias
What it means: Attributing greater accuracy to authority figures’ statements and giving them more weight regardless of actual expertise.
Example: “Believing a doctor’s claim about economics when they’re not an economist.”
In religious arguments: Trusting religious leaders’ claims about science without examining evidence yourself.
28. Choice-Supportive Bias
What it means: Attributing positive qualities to an option after choosing it, and negative qualities to rejected options.
Example: “After choosing a car, suddenly noticing all its good features while ignoring flaws.”
In religious arguments: After choosing a faith, emphasizing its strengths and rationalizing away contradictions or problematic elements.
29. Planning Fallacy
What it means: Underestimating the time, costs, or risks of future actions, treating your own projects as exceptions.
Example: “Consistently underestimating how long projects will take, even with historical evidence against you.”
In religious arguments: My spiritual transformation will be quick and easy,
30. Reactance
What it means: Reacting against perceived threats to your freedom by doing the opposite of what’s suggested.
Example: “When told not to touch something, wanting to touch it more.”
In religious arguments: Deconverting partly in reaction against strict religious control and perceived loss of autonomy.
31. Negativity Bias
What it means: Giving more weight to negative experiences and information than positive ones.
Example: “One criticism outweighs ten compliments in affecting your mood.”
In religious arguments: The world is full of evil and suffering, proving we need God.
32. Pro-Innovation Bias
What it means: Overestimating the likelihood of innovation adoption and benefits while underestimating challenges.
Example: “Tech companies overpromising how quickly new technologies will transform society.”
In religious arguments: New religious movements promising that following them will quickly solve life’s problems and create utopia.
33. Blind Spot Bias
What it means: Recognizing biases in others while failing to recognize them in yourself.
Example: “Criticizing others for bias while being biased yourself without realizing it.”
In religious arguments: Other religions are based on biased thinking,
34. Clustering Illusion
What it means: Seeing patterns in random data and believing they are meaningful.
Example: “Seeing a pattern in coin flips (heads, heads, tails, heads) and thinking it’s not truly random.”
In religious arguments: Interpreting random coincidences as divine signs or miracles.
35. Belief Bias
What it means: Judging the validity of an argument based on how much you agree with the conclusion, not the logic.
Example: “Accepting a poorly reasoned argument because you already believe its conclusion.”
In religious arguments: Accepting weak arguments for God’s existence because you want to believe in God.
36. Decoy Effect
What it means: Changing preference between two options when a third, inferior option is introduced.
Example: “Choosing Option A over Option B. When an inferior version of Option B is added, suddenly preferring Option B.”
In religious arguments: Finding faith more appealing when presented alongside a strawmanned atheism that seems even worse.
37. Familiarity Bias
What it means: Preferring things that are familiar and liking them more because they feel familiar.
Example: “Preferring music from your childhood simply because you’ve heard it many times.”
In religious arguments: Preferring the religion you were raised in because it’s familiar, independent of its truth claims.
38. Endowment Effect
What it means: Valuing something more highly simply because you own it.
Example: “Asking more for a used book you own than you would pay to buy the same book.”
In religious arguments: Overvaluing your inherited faith simply because it’s “yours,” resisting objective evaluation.
39. Peak-End Rule
What it means: Remembering experiences based on their peak moment and ending, not their average quality.
Example: “Remembering a vacation primarily by its best day and final day, not the overall experience.”
In religious arguments: Remembering a religious experience by its most powerful moment and its conclusion, overgeneralizing to the entire religion.
40. Zero-Risk Bias
What it means: Strongly preferring complete elimination of one risk even if other risks remain or increase.
Example: “Spending huge amounts on reducing a 1% risk to zero while ignoring a 10% risk that remains.”
In religious arguments: Adopting faith to achieve certainty about the afterlife, even though it introduces other uncertainties about belief claims.